Friday, November 13, 2009
Goals Aren't Estimates
Goals Aren't Estimates
Tutorials on estimation typically are presented
as though the necessary functionality is already defined and the
purpose of estimation is to determine the corresponding effort, cost,
time, and staff needed. Sometimes estimation works the other way,
though. If the schedule is constrained such that the product absolutely
must be delivered by a particular date, the relevant estimation
parameter is how much functionality of given quality will fit into that
time box. It's important to recognize that a management-imposed or
marketing-imposed delivery schedule is not an
estimate; it is a goal. A team of a certain size and skill level can
produce only so much high-quality functionality in a fixed time.
I once met a project manager who was delivering a
new release of his product every three months. His team came up with a
list of committed features they knew they could implement in the next
quarter, as well as a prioritized list of "stretch" features. They
would complete the committed features and then implement as many of the
stretch features as they could before the scheduled delivery date
arrived. This is an example of coping effectively with uncertain
estimates through intelligent scope management in a time-boxed
development cycle.
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